The Star Tribune, MPR News and KARE 11 interviewed 800 Minnesota registered voters between June 3 and June 5, 2024. All indicated they are likely to vote in the November general election. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Scroll down the page for details about how the poll was conducted, a map of the Minnesota regions used in this poll and the demographics of the 800 respondents.
- Analysis: Biden holds narrow lead over Trump, but GOP voters are more enthusiastic
- Previous poll results
- Methodology
If the 2024 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Joe Biden, the Democrat; Donald Trump, the Republican; Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an independent; or someone else?
Biden | Trump | Kennedy | Other: 2% | Undecided |
45% | 41% | 6% | 7% |
Biden | Trump | Kennedy | Other | Undecided | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hennepin/ Ramsey | 65% | 20% | 5% | 3% | 8% |
Rest of metro | 35 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 8 |
Southern Minn. | 34 | 53 | 7 | 1 | 5 |
Northern Minn. | 36 | 53 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
Men | 26 | 58 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
Women | 62 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 6 |
DFL/ Democrat | 93 | <1 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
Republican | <1 | 90 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
Independent/ other | 35 | 37 | 13 | 3 | 12 |
18-34 | 53 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 5 |
35-49 | 48 | 33 | 8 | 2 | 10 |
50-64 | 42 | 43 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
65+ | 38 | 51 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
No college degree | 37 | 48 | 6 | 1 | 8 |
College graduate | 53 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
White | 42 | 43 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
Nonwhite | 63 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 7 |
2020 Biden voters | 87 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
2020 Trump voters | 2 | 89 | 4 | <1 | 5 |
How enthusiastic are you about your preferred presidential candidate this year?
Very | Somewhat | Not very | Not at all |
44% | 30% | 21% | 5% |
Very | Somewhat | Not very | Not at all | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2024 Biden voters | 31% | 36% | 28% | 5% |
2024 Trump voters | 62 | 21 | 14 | 4 |
Which one of the following issues is most influential in deciding your vote for president?
Statewide | Biden voters | Trump voters | |
---|---|---|---|
Protecting democracy | 27% | 47% | 4% |
The economy and jobs | 26 | 11 | 40 |
Immigration | 15 | 1 | 33 |
Law & order and crime | 8 | 3 | 14 |
Climate change and the environment | 7 | 15 | 0 |
Healthcare | 7 | 13 | 1 |
Abortion | 6 | 8 | 2 |
Israel-Hamas war | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Supreme Court/ Judicial System | 1 | <1 | 2 |
Other | 2 | <1 | 3 |
Not Sure | 1 | <1 | 1 |
Do you approve or disapprove of Joe Biden's job performance as president?
Approve | Disapprove | Not sure: 1% |
46% | 53% |
Approve | Disapprove | Not sure | |
---|---|---|---|
Hennepin/Ramsey | 66% | 32% | 2% |
Rest of metro | 36 | 64 | 1 |
Southern Minn. | 37 | 63 | 0 |
Northern Minn. | 39 | 60 | 1 |
Men | 29 | 70 | 1 |
Women | 63 | 37 | 1 |
DFL/ Democrat | 93 | 7 | 0 |
Republican | 2 | 97 | 1 |
Independent/ other | 39 | 60 | 2 |
18-34 | 56 | 44 | 0 |
35-49 | 49 | 49 | 3 |
50-64 | 44 | 56 | 0 |
65+ | 40 | 60 | 1 |
No college degree | 39 | 60 | 1 |
College graduate | 54 | 45 | 1 |
White | 44 | 56 | 1 |
Nonwhite | 66 | 33 | 1 |
2024 Biden voters | 94 | 5 | <1 |
2024 Trump voters | 3 | 96 | 1 |
Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump's job performance during his term as president?
Approve | Disapprove | Not sure: 2% |
47% | 52% |
Approve | Disapprove | Not sure | |
---|---|---|---|
Hennepin/Ramsey | 24% | 74% | 2% |
Rest of metro | 58 | 41 | 1 |
Southern Minn. | 60 | 39 | 1 |
Northern Minn. | 55 | 41 | 4 |
Men | 64 | 33 | 3 |
Women | 30 | 68 | 1 |
DFL/ Democrat | 2 | 98 | 1 |
Republican | 98 | <1 | 2 |
Independent/ other | 46 | 51 | 3 |
18-34 | 38 | 60 | 2 |
35-49 | 41 | 55 | 4 |
50-64 | 47 | 52 | 1 |
65+ | 58 | 42 | 0 |
No college degree | 54 | 44 | 2 |
College graduate | 38 | 60 | 2 |
White | 50 | 49 | 2 |
Nonwhite | 26 | 73 | 2 |
2024 Biden voters | 7 | 92 | 1 |
2024 Trump voters | 95 | 3 | 1 |
Do you approve or disapprove of Amy Klobuchar's job performance as U.S. senator?
Approve | Disapprove | Not sure |
55% | 36% | 9% |
Approve | Disapprove | Not sure | |
---|---|---|---|
Hennepin/Ramsey | 72% | 23% | 5% |
Rest of metro | 49 | 42 | 9 |
Southern Minn. | 44 | 43 | 13 |
Northern Minn. | 45 | 43 | 12 |
Men | 40 | 48 | 13 |
Women | 68 | 26 | 6 |
DFL/ Democrat | 91 | 7 | 2 |
Republican | 15 | 66 | 19 |
Independent/ other | 53 | 39 | 8 |
18-34 | 59 | 35 | 7 |
35-49 | 58 | 32 | 11 |
50-64 | 54 | 40 | 7 |
65+ | 49 | 39 | 13 |
No college degree | 48 | 41 | 11 |
College graduate | 62 | 31 | 7 |
White | 52 | 38 | 10 |
Nonwhite | 73 | 23 | 5 |
2024 Biden voters | 94 | 5 | 2 |
2024 Trump voters | 19 | 66 | 15 |
About the poll
The findings of this Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll are based on live interviews conducted June 3 to June 5, 2024, with 800 Minnesota registered voters who indicated they are likely to vote in the November general election. The poll was conducted for the Star Tribune, Minnesota Public Radio News and KARE 11 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy Inc.
Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Minnesota voter registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turnout by county. The interviews were conducted via land line (19%) and cellphone (81%).
The margin of sampling error for this sample of 800 registered voters, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 3.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin of error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping.
The self-identified party affiliation of the respondents is 35% Democrats, 31% Republicans and 34% independents or other.
Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion surveys, such as nonresponse, question wording or context effects. In addition, news events may have affected opinions during the period the poll was taken.
The demographic profile of this poll of likely voters is an accurate reflection of their respective voter populations. This determination is based on more than 100 statewide polls conducted by Mason-Dixon in Minnesota over the past 36 years – a period that spans eight presidential election cycles that began in 1988.
Readers can e-mail questions to matt.delong@startribune.com.
PARTY ID | ||
---|---|---|
DFL/Democrat | 282 | (35%) |
Republican | 249 | (31%) |
Independent/ other | 269 | (34%) |
AGE | ||
18-34 | 124 | (16%) |
35-49 | 236 | (30%) |
50-64 | 232 | (29%) |
65+ | 205 | (26%) |
Refused | 3 | (<1%) |
RACE | ||
White/Caucasian | 692 | (87%) |
Black/African American | 43 | (5%) |
Hispanic/Latino | 37 | (5%) |
Asian/Pacific Islander | 15 | (2%) |
Other | 7 | (1%) |
Refused | 6 | (1%) |
GENDER ID | ||
Men | 383 | (48%) |
Women | 414 | (52%) |
Other | 3 | (<1%) |
REGION | ||
---|---|---|
Hennepin/Ramsey | 260 | (33%) |
Rest of metro | 215 | (27%) |
Southern Minnesota | 175 | (22%) |
Northern Minnesota | 150 | (19%) |
EDUCATION | ||
High school or less | 167 | (21%) |
Some college/Vocational | 254 | (32%) |
College graduate | 240 | (30%) |
Graduate degree | 133 | (17%) |
Refused | 6 | (1%) |
2020 VOTE | ||
Joe Biden | 381 | (48%) |
Donald Trump | 333 | (42%) |
Other | 16 | (2%) |
Did not vote | 39 | (5%) |
Not sure/Refused | 31 | (4%) |
INTERVIEW | ||
Land line | 154 | (19%) |
Cell Phone | 646 | (81%) |