Dodgers vs Angels Predictions, Picks, Odds — 6-22 (2024)

Freddie Freeman has been outstanding vs. righties this season, and an overmatched Zach Plesac should be like a lamb to the slaughter in this Freeway Series clash tonight, per our MLB betting picks.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (47-31) look to get back on track after surprisingly dropping Game 1 against the Los Angeles Angels (30-45) by a final score of 3-2 in extra innings. They’re heavily favored to do that according to MLB odds, as the Dodgers are -375 on the moneyline while the total has been set at 8.5.

There’s quite the discrepancy in starting pitching caliber between Zach Plesac and Tyler Glasnow, so I dive into what that means for the betting market in my Angels vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, June 22.

Angels vs Dodgers prediction

My best bet
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (-115 at bet365)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis

On Monday, Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Zach Plesac made his first start since April 29, 2023. He held the Milwaukee Brewers to three earned runs on four hits and two walks while notching a single strikeout. One could consider it a successful return to the big-league mound, but I’m not sure if the same level of effectiveness will carry over to Saturday’s follow-up against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

First off, Plesac had the element of surprise working in his favor. Manager Ron Washington discovered that expected starter Jose Soriano needed to be scratched just two and a half hours before the game due to lower abdominal discomfort. Plesac, expected to fill a bulk-inning relief role out of the pen in his return to the MLB, earned the surprise start and his opponent therefore was unable to do much prep work.

Secondly, the Ball State product’s velocity was way down on Monday. He averaged just 89.9 mph on his fastball (92.7 mph career average), 83.7 mph on his slider (85.7 mph career average), and 75.6 mph on his curveball (79.5 mph career average). That sort of soft toss won’t cut it against a Dodgers lineup that's put forth a 122 wRC+ and .339 wOBA against right-handed pitching across the last 15 days.

Thirdly, the 29-year-old has a long track record of poor performance, and therefore I’m not going to overreact to one outing. He had an unappealing 5.42 ERA across 74 2/3 innings at Triple-A Salt Lake this year before the call-up. The last time we saw him in the MLB, he was tagged for a 7.59 ERA across five starts a year ago.

Things were already headed in the wrong direction before then. From 2021 to 2022 (50 appearances), his FIP was above 4.45 while his xERA exceeded 4.50 and topped out at 5.48 in 2022. Plesac’s 9.2% barrel% is a concern and it was worrying to see him get barreled 20% of the time in his debut.

One Dodger that appears poised to do some damage against an overmatched starting pitcher is Freddie Freeman. The veteran has destroyed right-handed pitching this season (.341 BA, 1.025 OPS, 186 wRC+) and has been more effective in the confines of his home ballpark (.303 BA, .906 OPS, 158 wRC+).

Those numbers are too good to ignore against a pitcher in Plesac who has struggled against lefties in his career (.324 wOBA, 4.86 FIP, 1.32 WHIP). I’ll bet on Freeman exceeding his total bases prop of 1.5 as tonight’s best bet for the Freeway Series.

Angels vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)

Jason Heyward is another Dodger who forecasts for a successful day at the dish considering the matchup and his platoon splits. The 34-year-old has a 122 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season and had a 123 wRC+ last year, so by now we can expect solid production when he’s in the lineup against a right-handed starter.

Tyler Glasnow’s NL Cy Young odds campaign continues here against an Angles lineup that has a 91 wRC+, .299 wOBA, and 23.1% K% against righties. Those numbers will hardly instill fear into any opposing pitcher, let alone arguably the sport’s top arm at present time. The towering hurler has notched 8+ strikeouts in nine of his last 10 starts and shouldn’t be deterred by the Halos.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Angels vs Dodgers odds

Angels vs Dodgers live odds

Angels vs Dodgers opening odds

• Run line: Los Angeles +2.5 (-118) | Los Angeles -2.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Los Angeles +260 | Los Angeles -345
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-118)

Angels vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Angels’ win on Friday night snapped a 10-game Dodgers winning streak in the series.
• The Dodgers have cashed the Under in four of Glasnow’s last five starts.
• These two teams tend to get into low-scoring games against one another, going 4-9 O/U across the last 13 meetings.

Angels vs Dodgers trend

Freddie Freeman has recorded at least two total bases in three of his last four games against a right-handed starting pitcher. Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Dodgers

Angels vs Dodgers game info

Angels vs Dodgers latest injuries

Angels vs Dodgers weather

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